Since the economy took a nose dive (with the biggest drop starting in October 2008) pundits have debated how it will impact advertising / marketing and the digital marketing sector in particular.  Some in my industry were brazen enough to proclaim we (digital marketers) would not be adversely affected by the recession as media dollars would shift to where to those channels where results and ROI were most apparent. I was hopeful this would play out.  In theory it sounded good! But reality is a different matter.

First, it’s very apparent that digital is not immune to economic downturns. While there are instances where some brands are following through and spending more online (at expense of traditional media), most have scaled back on display and other “advertising” channels, focusing on media that rings the register (e.g. search) and social media.  Generally speaking, when the pie shrinks, everyone’s piece gets smaller. And while some small shifts did take place, they were overshadowed by the rapid deterioration in results from online campaigns. Q4’08 and Q1’09 were tough times for DR-centric online marketers – when consumers stop buying it’s hard to keep your clients happy (even if you are outperforming other media).

We also learned Digital is often at a disadvantage because big advertisers can’t just cancel their contractual media commitments to traditional vendors. The downside to having an on/off button with your media is that when budgets have to be cut, it often represents one of the few areas where spend can immediately be paused. It’s not a good business practice, but by now we know that marketers don’t always do what is best for their brand (job preservation will always prevail over doing what’s right for the company).

However, I’ve always felt this recession would offer a silver lining for interactive and it’s starting to come true. Budget shifts are taking place, and even though it may take 6-12 months for the mix to change, we’ll see a higher allocation to digital in 2-3 years than we would have if not for the downturn. It’s hard to make big changes when things are status quo. One of the benefits of a recession is it forces brands to take drastic action, that is often required to make meaningful change.

This is the thesis behind my article “Silver Lining for Interactive“.  I believe my predictions will hold true and that the near term setbacks are going to be a blessing in the long term.

As always, I would love to hear what other marketers (traditional and digital) think, and how they view the changes that have taken place since 10/08. I hope to hear back from a few of you!

Steve Latham

http://twitter.com/stevelatham